Abstract: Coral reefs are important as they can help to maintain ecological balance, biological resources, and species diversity on earth. However, they are globally threatened by human activities and climate change. As live coral cover (LCC) is regarded as an important measure of the health of coral reefs, analysis on LCC change associated with environmental parameters, such as chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), sea surface temperature (SST), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), is of great value. Research on this front would help us comprehend the changes in coral reefs induced by human activities and global changes. Instead of using spasmodically in-field-measured environmental parameters, in this study, we chose to combine the successive Chl-a, SST, and PAR products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with historic LCC records to establish an empirical relationship using nonlinear optimization. Thereafter, the established relationship was further used to discuss some possible developments of LCCs. According to the experiments, we concluded that the degradation of the LCC around Weizhou Island may be mainly caused by human-activity-caused eutrophication. Besides, we also showed that even if the Chl-a and the PAR can keep constant with current average levels, the corals around Weizhou Island may still be in a risk of disappearing between 2120–2140 as the SST continues to rise.
Keywords: live coral cover; MODIS; coral reefs; Weizhou Island; South China Sea
